MAR 7 QQQ/NQ Projections

🚨 Market Update & Strategy 🚨

Good morning everyone! Yesterday was a banger in the discord, pivoting from bear to bull and back, hitting every call on the fly! Mid-day puts saw gains up to 700%. What a great day, with over 12k booked in futures as many members feasted on the technical analysis.

We aimed for a deep retrace at a key Fibonacci level and nailed it at the .618 after pushing through the .5. Initially, it seemed like we might fail at the .5, but we successfully retraced into .5 of the upward move.

This demonstrates the fractal nature of Fibonacci levels and Elliott Waves, where each wave offers a retrace and extension to play into. As the day progresses, we adjust our strategies accordingly, catching opportunities along the way.

🔍 Today's Setup 🔍

Today, I'm eyeing the upside with two different counts but will also discuss the less likely bearish scenario.

In the PM session, the dip was deeper than expected. However, zooming out reveals that we satisfied a 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) with a long wick, volume spike, and a strong bullish candle. This indicates we might sweep the high above us and break the .618 Fibonacci level, entering a Fibonacci extension and targeting at least the .786!

If we are in a new impulsive wave upwards, we could be seeing new highs in the coming days! With a FVG above us at the .786, this level is the most likely pivot back to short-term bearish. However, breaking through could significantly increase the chances of reaching new highs, potentially leading to an explosive Friday.

My primary focus today is on a wave 2 into our fresh 1-hour bullish FVG, marked for potential long positions on NQ.

🌜Last Night's Move🌛: I swung calls, planning to trim under the 3am candle base, targeting around the .786 for take profit (TP).

The bearish view suggests we might be in a 5-wave downtrend extending to QQQ 428.59. While possible, the pre-market strength and absence of a clear 3-wave structure for the retracement make this scenario less likely. However, it's important to remain cautious and prepare for this possibility if we break below the pre-market low or the 3am candle base.

📊 Fibonacci Levels to Watch:

NQ (Nasdaq):

🟢 1 Fib Extension: 18257.50 (very close to FVG and .786)
🟢 Larger .786 Retrace: 18261.75

QQQ:

🟡 1 Fib Extension: 444.28 (very close to FVG and .786)
🟡 Larger .786 Fib: 443.94

📈 Strategy: Wait for a retrace into the 1-hour FVG and go long, planning to cut under the 3am candle base forming the 1hr FVG. Target yesterday's high for TP1 and the .786 Fibonacci level for TP2.

⚠️ Caution: If we are still in a corrective ABC pattern, all subwaves could be misleading, resulting in bear traps and bull traps. Size positions conservatively and be prepared to adjust quickly. If you lack day trades, consider waiting to play this wave until we confirm a trend for the coming days.

💡 Positioning: Holding 10x 3/7 443C calls.